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Next Express Entry Draw Important To Determine Your PR Odds In 2025

June 2, 2025
10:16 am

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Last Updated On 2 June 2025, 9:04 AM EDT (Toronto Time)

Canada’s Express Entry system remains one of the most coveted pathways for skilled immigrants seeking permanent residency (PR).

However, 2025 has ushered in a new era of unpredictability for Express Entry draws, with significant changes reshaping the landscape.

A temporary halt in draws after March 21, followed by a resumption on April 14 with smaller rounds of invitations, has kept candidates on edge.

The Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has conducted only six draws since March 21, reflecting the effect of reduced immigration targets for 2025–2027.

With the removal of arranged job offer points on March 25, many anticipated a significant drop in Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) cutoff scores, particularly for the Canadian Experience Class (CEC).

Yet, higher-than-expected CRS cutoffs due to smaller draw sizes and a brief pause has left applicants reevaluating their strategies.

Based on the usual, but not mandatory, biweekly schedule, all eyes were on the next Express Entry draw between May 27 and May 30, 2025.

However, IRCC did not hold any round of invitations during last week.

All eyes are now on this week or next week to see how the next Express Entry draw will shape the path to PR.

Will the CRS cutoff drop, offering hope to thousands in the pool? Likely not.

Will there be a large draw signalling IRCC’s intent to transition more temporary residents to PR? Or will the focus remain on targeted, category-based selections?

This article dives deep into the developing Express Entry landscape, analyzing key factors to watch in the upcoming draw, offering actionable strategies to boost your PR odds, and exploring how recent trends could impact your journey to Canadian permanent residency.

The Shifting Landscape of Express Entry in 2025

Canada’s Express Entry system, launched in 2015, is designed to attract skilled workers to meet the country’s labour market needs.

It manages three key programs: the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) for professionals with foreign work experience, the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) for those with Canadian work experience, and the Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP) for skilled tradespeople.

Additionally, the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) allows provinces to nominate candidates who meet regional economic needs, adding 600 CRS points to their profiles, virtually guaranteeing an Invitation to Apply (ITA) for PR.

In 2025, however, the system has undergone a dramatic transformation with PNP annual quotas slashed by 50%.

In its decade-long history, IRCC is opting for targeted, category-based selections, prioritizing candidates with specific skills or French proficiency.

This shift aligns with Canada’s 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan, which aims to stabilize permanent resident intake at 1% of the population by 2027 to ease pressure on housing and healthcare systems.

The temporary suspension of draws after March 21, 2025, and their resumption on April 14 with smaller invitation rounds have heightened competition.

For instance, the May 13 CEC draw invited only 500 candidates with a record-high CRS cutoff of 547 for 2025, a stark contrast to earlier expectations of scores dropping to 500 or lower.

The removal of arranged job offer points—previously worth 50–200 CRS points—on March 25 was expected to lower cutoffs, but smaller draw sizes and a competitive pool have kept scores elevated.

As of the latest processing update, there are 880,800 PR applications already in IRCC’s processing inventory—enough to meet the target of 775,000 for the next two years—candidates must adapt to a more selective system.

This data is from the IRCC inventory as of April 30, 2025, which means there are enough applications under processing to meet the annual target until April 2027 at a nearly 88% approval rate.

The next Express Entry draw will be a critical indicator of IRCC’s priorities and your chances of securing PR in 2025 or even making a decision to move on.

Below, we explore five key factors to watch and how they could shape your PR odds.

5 Key Factors to Watch in the Next Express Entry Draw

1. CRS Cutoff Score: A Make-or-Break Moment

The CRS cutoff score is the minimum score required to receive an ITA in an Express Entry draw.

The number of invitations issued and the strength of profiles in the pool determine the CRS cutoff score.

Earlier in 2025, candidates hoped the removal of job offer points would lower CRS cutoffs, particularly for CEC draws, to around 500 or below.

However, recent draws have defied expectations of a temporary pause and reduction in draw size. For example:

January 8, 2025: 1,350 CEC invitations with a CRS cutoff of 542.
January 23, 2025: 4,000 CEC invitations with a CRS cutoff of 527.
February 5, 2025: 4,000 CEC invitations with a CRS cutoff of 521.
May 13, 2025: 500 CEC invitations with a CRS cutoff of 547, the highest for CEC in 2025.

A significant drop in the CRS cutoff in the next draw—potentially around the 530-535 range for CEC—would still signal hope for candidates with scores of 510+.

This could indicate IRCC is clearing out high-scoring profiles, paving the way for lower cutoffs in future draws.

Conversely, a persistently high cutoff (above 540) could frustrate candidates, especially those banking on CEC draws, and push them to explore alternatives, which have seen cutoffs as low as 379 in 2025.

Monitor the CRS score distribution in the pool and aim to boost your score through language proficiency (up to 310 points for a sole applicant).

For example, improving your Canadian Language Benchmark (CLB) score to 9 or higher in English or French can add significant points, as seen in the case of Amy, who increased her CRS score from 515 to 559 with a CLB of 9, qualifying for recent CEC draws.

2. Size of the Draw: A Clue to IRCC’s Intentions

The number of ITAs issued in a draw directly impacts the CRS cutoff and reflects IRCC’s priorities.

Larger draws typically lower the cutoff by inviting more candidates, while smaller draws, like the 500 ITAs in the May 13 CEC draw, keep scores high due to limited spots.

In 2025, a total of 34,440 ITAs have been issued in 17 draws and draw sizes have shrunk significantly lately.

January–February 2025: 17,422 ITAs were issued across 7 draws.
March-April 2025: 14,507 ITAs across 6 draws.
May 2025: 2,511 ITAs sent across 4 draws.
Nearly 54% of draws (18,500 ITAs) were only for French language proficiency.
Around 29% (9,850) were CEC draws, while only 4.3% were category based (Education and Healthcare)

A larger CEC draw (e.g., 2,000–4,000 ITAs) in the next round would suggest IRCC is still prioritizing in-Canada temporary residents, aligning with its target of admitting 83,000 CEC applicants in 2025.

However, with a processing inventory sufficient for two years, IRCC may continue issuing fewer ITAs to manage backlogs, keeping draws small and competitive.

Another large-sized French draw will determine IRCC’s intention to continue focusing on this language-based round of invitations.

Mostly underutilized, we are expected to see occupation-based draws since that is the most logical thing to do right now.

Again, if draw size stays less than 1,000-1,500 for occupation-based draws, then it will make the picture a lot clearer to expect smaller rounds of invitations for the rest of 2025.

If the next draw is small, focus on maximizing your CRS score with French language proficiency.

Express Entry draws used to typically be held biweekly, but IRCC has deviated from this schedule multiple times in 2025, including the month-long pause after March 21.

The resumption of draws on April 14 and subsequent rounds (e.g., the May 12 PNP draw with 511 ITAs and the May 13 CEC draw with 500 ITAs) suggests a return to a biweekly cadence, but IRCC has again missed the biweekly schedule.

If the next draw occurs this week, then we can expect to not expect future Express Entry draws on a biweekly schedule.

However, if a pattern develops that IRCC sticks to a biweekly schedule and does not hold any draws this week, then we may see a pattern or one can say a new norm, that Express Entry draws might start following a 4-week schedule.

Based on the 4-week schedule, you can expect that the CRS cutoff score will then remain consistently in the higher range.

Stay updated via IRCC’s official website or trusted immigration news sources like Immigration News Canada.

Prepare your profile for submission as soon as possible, as the tie-breaking rule prioritizes earlier profile submissions when candidates have identical CRS scores.

4. Number of Draws in a Single Week: A Bullish Signal?

IRCC occasionally conducts multiple draws in a single week, targeting different categories such as PNP, CEC, or occupation-specific streams like healthcare, education, or French proficiency.

For instance, a week with a small PNP draw (e.g., 500–700 ITAs), followed by a CEC draw and a French proficiency draw, would distribute invitations across diverse candidate pools, potentially lowering CRS cutoffs for category-based draws.

ITAs distributed among multiple draws in a single week will help in understanding the total number of invitations issued in one week.

If that total is 5,000 or higher, then it is a bullish signal, but it is highly unlikely, and we might see a total of 1,500-2,000 ITAs in a single week.

In 2025, IRCC has prioritized:

PNP Draws: The May 12 draw invited 511 candidates with a CRS cutoff of 706, reflecting the 600-point boost from provincial nominations.
French Proficiency Draws: A March 21 draw invited 7,500 candidates with a CRS cutoff of 379, one of the lowest in 2025.
Occupation-Specific Draws: A May 1 education category draw invited 1,000 candidates with a CRS cutoff of 479, targeting teachers to address provincial shortages.

Multiple draws in a single week would be a bullish signal, indicating IRCC’s intent to spread its annual quota across categories despite reduced targets.

This could increase your PR odds, especially if you qualify for a category-based draw with a lower cutoff.

Assess your eligibility for category-based draws, particularly in education, healthcare, trades, or French proficiency.

For example, candidates with six months of full-time work experience in eligible education occupations (e.g., teachers) qualified for the May 1 draw with a CRS score of 479.

If you’re bilingual, aim for a CLB 7 or higher in French to target French proficiency draws, which often have lower cutoffs.

5. CRS Score Distribution in the Pool: Mapping Your Odds

IRCC publishes the CRS score distribution in the Express Entry pool alongside each draw, showing the number of candidates in specific score ranges (e.g., 501–600, 601–700).

Many underestimate this distribution and only focus on a particular date’s draw cutoff and invitations.

This data provides insight into the pool’s competitiveness and helps predict future CRS cutoffs.

For instance, as of May 12, 2025, the pool contained many strong CEC profiles with scores above 500, driven by candidates who entered in mid-2024.

This high concentration of competitive profiles has kept CRS cutoffs elevated, particularly for CEC draws.

A favourable distribution—showing fewer candidates in higher score ranges (e.g., 501–600) and more in lower ranges (e.g., 401–500)—could signal potential for lower cutoffs in future draws if IRCC increases invitation numbers.

Conversely, a pool dominated by high-scoring profiles suggests continued high cutoffs unless draw sizes grow significantly.

Use the CRS score distribution to gauge your position in the pool. If your score is below the current cutoff (e.g., 547 for CEC), focus on strategies to boost it, such as improving language scores, gaining additional Canadian work experience, or securing a provincial nomination.

For example, a candidate with 2-3 years of Canadian work experience and a CLB 9 in English could score near or above 547, especially with Canadian higher-level education credentials.

Given the competitive nature of Express Entry in 2025, candidates must proactively enhance their profiles to maximize their CRS scores and align with IRCC’s priorities.

Here are actionable strategies to improve your chances:

Maximize Language Proficiency: Language skills are a major CRS component, contributing up to 310 points for a sole applicant. Invest in preparation for tests like CELPIP or IELTS for English or TEF for French.
- Achieving a CLB 9 or higher can significantly boost your score. For bilingual candidates, French proficiency draws offer lower cutoffs (336–428 in 2025), making French skills a game-changer.
Gain Canadian Work Experience: CEC draws prioritize candidates with at least one year of Canadian work experience. Completing another year or gaining experience in a priority occupation (e.g., healthcare, education, trades) can boost your CRS score and eligibility for category-based draws.
Explore New Pilot Programs: Canada’s 2025 rural and Francophone community pilots offer alternative PR pathways for candidates willing to settle in designated areas.
- These programs could bypass the competitive Express Entry pool, especially for those with moderate CRS scores, but these pilot programs have very low quotas.
Leverage Education Credentials: The new education category, introduced in February 2025, targets professionals like teachers with Canadian work experience.
- If you qualify, a CRS score as low as 479 could secure an ITA. Ensure your credentials are assessed by a designated organization to maximize points.
Optimize Spousal Points: If applying with a spouse, their language skills or education can add up to 40 CRS points. Ensure they complete language tests and credential assessments.
Stay Informed: Follow IRCC announcements and trusted sources like Immigration News Canada for real-time updates on draw schedules and trends.

For temporary residents in Canada, particularly those on work or study permits, the next Express Entry draw will be pivotal.

The CEC program is designed for candidates with Canadian work experience, making it a primary pathway for transitioning to PR.

However, the limited number of CEC draws in 2025 (only four so far, with 9,850 ITAs total) and high CRS cutoffs have created uncertainty.

A larger CEC draw or a lower cutoff would signal IRCC’s commitment to converting temporary residents to permanent residents, aligning with Canada’s goal of retaining skilled workers familiar with its labour market and culture.

If the next draw prioritizes category-based selections (e.g., French proficiency, education, or trades), temporary residents in these fields could benefit from lower cutoffs.

For instance, a French-speaking candidate with a CRS score of 400 could qualify for a French proficiency draw, while a teacher with a score of 480 could secure an ITA in an education category draw.

Conversely, a small or high-cutoff draw could push temporary residents to explore ways to stay competitive or look for alternatives.

The Broader Context: Canada’s Immigration Strategy in 2025

Canada’s immigration policies are evolving under the leadership of new Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab, appointed on May 13, 2025, as part of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s cabinet shuffle.

The 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan reflects a cautious approach, reducing PNP targets by nearly 50% and prioritizing candidates who align with economic and social goals, such as those with Canadian experience, French proficiency, or skills in high-demand sectors.

This shift responds to domestic pressures, including housing shortages and healthcare capacity constraints, while maintaining Canada’s reputation as a welcoming destination for skilled immigrants.

The introduction of new category-based draws, such as the education category on May 1 and the expanded trades category in February, underscores IRCC’s focus on addressing specific labour market needs.

The next Express Entry draw, expected any day now, will be a critical milestone for skilled immigrants aiming for Canadian permanent residency.

A drop in the CRS cutoff, larger draw sizes, or multiple draws in a single week could boost your PR odds, particularly if you qualify for category-based selections.

Conversely, persistently high cutoffs and small draws will require strategic planning to stay competitive in a selective system.

To maximize your chances, focus on improving your CRS score through language proficiency and Canadian work experience.

Explore category-based draws and pilot programs, and stay informed about IRCC’s evolving priorities.

With the right strategy, the next draw could be your gateway to calling Canada home.

For the latest updates, visit the IRCC website or follow trusted sources like Immigration News Canada.

If you need personalized guidance, consider consulting a Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant (RCIC) to navigate the complex Express Entry landscape.

Kamal Deep Singh, RCIC

Kamal Deep Singh, RCIC (Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant) licensed by CICC (formerly known as ICCRC) with member number R708618. He brings extensive knowledge of immigration law and new changes to rapidly evolving IRCC.