Last Updated On 21 May 2025, 9:38 AM EDT (Toronto Time)
As we move deeper into 2025, the Express Entry draws continue to remain unpredictable with recent significant changes and adjusting to the government’s 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan.
With the latest Express Entry draw on May 13, 2025, issuing 500 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) at a Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score of 547, applicants are eager to understand what the next draw might hold.
This article dives into recent trends and data-driven predictions to forecast the next Express Entry draw, offering actionable insights for prospective immigrants.
Table of Contents
Recent Trends in Express Entry Draws (2025)
To predict the next Express Entry draw, we must first examine the trends observed in 2025 so far.
The following patterns, drawn from recent draws and policy announcements, provide a foundation for our forecast:
Focus On In-Canada Express Entry applicants
The CEC has emerged as a priority in 2025, with IRCC issuing 9,350 ITAs to CEC candidates by May 7, 2025.
The latest CEC draw on May 13, 2025, invited 500 candidates with a minimum CRS score of 547, the highest cut-off for a CEC draw this year.
This high threshold and small draw size suggest a competitive pool of CEC candidates, many of whom have strong profiles due to Canadian work experience and language proficiency.
This shift reflects Canada’s reduced permanent resident targets, which dropped from 485,000 in 2024 to 395,000 in 2025—the first annual reduction in over a decade.
With fewer spots available, IRCC is focusing on candidates who are already in Canada, have provincial nominations, or possess skills in high-demand occupations.
It is expected that the CEC draws are likely to account for 20–25% of total Express Entry invitations in 2025, with scores potentially remaining above 500 for the rest of the year.
Introduced in mid-2023, category-based draws target candidates with specific attributes, such as proficiency in French or work experience in high-demand occupations like healthcare, trades, STEM, or education.
In 2025, IRCC is expected to allocate just over 40,000 spots for category-based draws, with one to two draws expected per month.
French-focused draws are expected to be of larger size along with smaller size occupation-targeted rounds of invitations.
Recent examples include:
- French Proficiency Draws: These have consistently lower CRS cut-offs, with a March 21, 2025, draw issuing 7,500 ITAs at a CRS score of 379, the lowest of the year.
- Healthcare Draw (May 2, 2025): 500 ITAs issued with a CRS cut-off of 510, the highest for a healthcare draw to date.
- Education Draw (May 1, 2025): The first-ever education category draw, issuing 1,000 ITAs at a CRS cut-off of 479, targeting teachers, early childhood educators, and related professionals.
The addition of an education category in 2025 reflects Canada’s evolving labor needs, particularly in addressing shortages in teaching and childcare.
French proficiency draws, which account for 8–9% of total ITAs, support the government’s target of 8.5% French-speaking immigrants outside Quebec, rising to 10% by 2027.
These draws offer a significant advantage for bilingual candidates, as competition is less intense and cut-offs are lower.
Decline Of Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)
PNP draws have been a staple of Express Entry, with 4,079 ITAs issued to PNP candidates by May 2, 2025.
However, the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan significantly reduces PNP targets, from 110,000 in 2024 to 55,000 in 2025.
This reduction is expected to result in fewer PNP invitations, though the biweekly frequency of PNP draws is likely to continue.
Recent PNP draws have had high CRS cut-offs (e.g., 763 on April 14, 2025), largely because a provincial nomination adds 600 CRS points, pushing scores into the 700s or 800s.
The cut in PNP targets is part of a broader effort to balance immigration with housing and healthcare capacity.
Provinces have been offered the option to reclaim some PNP spots by accepting more refugees, but this is only done by provinces with smaller annual quota.
A significant policy change in 2025 is the elimination of additional CRS points for a job offer, effective March 2025.
Previously, a valid job offer could add 50–200 points, but IRCC removed this to curb fraudulent practices, such as the illegal buying and selling of Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs).
This change was expected to lower CRS cut-offs slightly, as candidates can no longer rely on job offer points to boost their scores.
However, CRS cutoff score continues to remain higher since IRCC is not holding frequent rounds of invitations and smaller draw sizes.
High CRS Cut-Offs and Smaller Draw Sizes
The first half of 2025 has seen smaller draw sizes and higher CRS cut-offs compared to previous years.
For example, April 2025 saw only two PNP draws issuing 1,246 ITAs, a sharp decline from the 17,000+ ITAs issued in January and February combined.
The May 13 CEC draw’s CRS cut-off of 547 and small size (500 ITAs) indicate a highly competitive pool, particularly for in-Canada candidates.
Latest CRS score distribution in the pool suggest that the Express Entry pool contains many strong CEC profiles with scores above 500, driven by candidates who entered the pool in mid-2024.
This trend is partly due to the reduced immigration targets and IRCC’s focus on issuing lesser invitations.
With 852,700 permanent residency applications already in processing—enough to meet targets for the next two years—IRCC is prioritizing candidates who align with specific economic and social goals.
Predicting the Next Express Entry Draw
Based on the trends above and recent draw patterns, the next Express Entry draw is likely to occur around May 27–30, 2025, following the biweekly schedule.
However, IRCC is unpredictable and we cannot refute the possibility of next draw this week. Here’s a detailed prediction of what to expect:
Draw Type and Program Focus
The next Express Entry draw is most likely to be a category-based draw, given the absence of such draws since May 2, 2025.
IRCC has not conducted a category-based draw in May yet, a draw targeting French proficiency, healthcare, or trades is probable.
A healthcare draw is particularly likely, as Canada faces persistent shortages in this sector, and the last healthcare draw had a high CRS cut-off (510), suggesting strong demand.
Alternatively, a French proficiency draw could occur, especially if IRCC aims to meet its Francophone immigration targets.
These draws typically have lower CRS cut-offs (336–428) and larger invitation numbers (2,000–7,500), making them accessible to bilingual candidates.
A CEC draw is less likely, as the May 13 draw was CEC-specific, and IRCC tends to alternate draw types.
A PNP draw is also possible but may be smaller due to reduced PNP targets.
CRS Cut-Off Score
The CRS cut-off will depend on the draw type:
- French Proficiency Draw: A lower cut-off of around 360-380 is likely, as seen in the March 21 draw (379). These draws attract low-scoring candidates, making them more accessible.
- Healthcare: Expect a CRS cut-off in the range of 490–510, based on recent healthcare (510). The high demand for these occupations and the competitive pool may keep scores elevated.
- Trades: We may see a trades focused draw as well which will also be having CRS cutoff of around 450.
- PNP Draw: If a PNP draw occurs, expect a high cut-off of around 700, reflecting the 600-point nomination bonus.
Candidates with CRS scores below 450 may struggle unless eligible for French proficiency or trades categories.
Number of Invitations
The number of ITAs will likely range from 500 to 2,000, based on recent draw sizes.
Category-based draws tend to issue around 1,000 ITAs for healthcare or trades and up to 5,000 for French proficiency.
A smaller draw size aligns with the reduced immigration targets and IRCC’s cautious approach to managing application volumes.
As of May 13, 2025, IRCC has issued 34,440 ITAs, with a slight pause after March draws and recent smaller sized rounds of invitations, suggesting a controlled pace to meet the annual target of ITAs.
This prediction is grounded in recent trends, including the emphasis on CEC and category-based selections, and the reduced PNP targets outlined in the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan.
While the system’s targeted approach creates challenges for some applicants, it opens doors for those with Canadian experience, French skills, or in-demand occupations.
By focusing on language skills, Canadian experience, or in-demand occupations, applicants can turn the targeted system into an advantage.
Is CRS Expected to Drop in 2025?
CRS cut-offs are not expected to drop broadly in 2025 since IRCC is not holding regular draws, but opportunities exist in French proficiency and select category-based draws.
Candidates should focus on boosting their scores through language proficiency (especially French), Canadian work experience, or provincial nominations to stay competitive.
When Can I Expect the Next Express Entry Draw?
Expect the next Express Entry draw around May 27–30, 2025, based on the bi-weekly schedule and will likely be a category-based group like French, healthcare, or trades.
Can I Get PR with a 400 CRS Score?
A 400 CRS score is unlikely to secure PR in most 2025 Express Entry draws, but you may succeed in French proficiency or trades draws if eligible.
To improve your chances, focus on learning French, gaining Canadian work experience, or securing a provincial nomination.
Profiles remain valid for one year, so update yours with any new qualifications to stay competitive.
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