Express Entry Draw CRS Cutoff Is Now Expected To Drop Below 500

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Express Entry Draw CRS Cutoff Is Now Expected To Drop Below 500

February 12, 2025
10:42 am

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Last Updated On 12 February 2025, 10:00 AM EST (Toronto Time)

Express Entry Draw Prediction 2025: In a significant shift for Canada’s immigration landscape, the Express Entry system is poised for major changes in 2025.

As of February 5, 2025, the latest Express Entry draws have shown a consistent pattern in CRS scores, but with a notable trend towards a decrease in the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws:

These figures indicate a gradual decrease in the lowest CRS score for CEC draws, from 542 in early January to 521 by early February, suggesting a downward trajectory in the required scores for these draws.

This article dives deep into analyzing the potential impact of the policy changes on the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) scores, predicting when the CRS cutoff might dip below 500, based on current trends and data from early 2025.

The policy change announced by Minister Marc Miller in late 2024 to remove the additional 50 to 200 CRS points for LMIA-backed job offers is set to come into effect in spring 2025.

This adjustment aims to curb fraudulent activities where job offers are bought or manipulated to inflate CRS scores.

Here’s how this could influence the CRS cutoff:

Reduction in CRS Scores: Since many candidates leverage these additional points to secure invitations, their removal will naturally lower the overall average score in the pool.

Shifting Focus: Candidates will now need to bolster other areas of their profiles, like education, language proficiency, or work experience, to maintain or increase their competitiveness.

Equal Opportunity for All: This change could level the playing field, potentially allowing candidates with strong profiles in other areas to receive invitations without relying on job offers.

Analyzing the current distribution of CRS scores in the Express Entry pool:

High Scores (601-1200): Only 173 candidates, indicating a very small elite group.

Competitive Range (501-600): 23,165 candidates, showing a significant but manageable number of high-scoring candidates.

Near Cutoff (451-500): A substantial 68,910 candidates, with a detailed breakdown showing clusters around 491-500 (13,487 candidates), which could push the cutoff down once job offer points are removed.

CRS score range	Number of candidates
601-1200	173
501-600	23,165
451-500	68,910
491-500	13,487
481-490	13,003
471-480	15,652
461-470	13,815
451-460	12,953
401-450	63,508
441-450	12,567
431-440	13,621
421-430	12,432
411-420	12,833
401-410	12,055
351-400	51,079
301-350	21,576
0-300	5,641
Total	234,052

CRS score distribution in the pool as of February 5, 2025

With the removal of job offer points, the scores of many candidates will decrease, particularly those who had been relying on these points.

Given the current trends and the upcoming policy change:

Immediate Impact: Post-spring 2025, we can expect an immediate impact where scores of many candidates drop by at least 50 points.

This would shift the current cutoff of around 520 for CEC draws closer to the 470-480 range initially, provided that IRCC continues with a similar size of draws and after regular intervals.

Gradual Decline: As candidates adjust their strategies and focus on improving other CRS components, the pool’s average score might stabilize or even decrease further.

Prediction: Based on the data, the CRS cutoff could potentially drop below 500:

Optimistic Scenario: By late spring to early summer 2025, if the pool’s composition shifts significantly due to the policy change and candidates’ adjustments.
Conservative Estimate: By mid to late summer 2025, considering the time it takes for candidates to adapt to the new scoring system and for new profiles to enter with potentially lower scores, IRCC keeps sending biweekly CEC invitations of 3,000 or more.

Boost Other Areas: Applicants should focus on enhancing language skills, gaining more relevant work experience, or obtaining provincial nominations for a significant CRS boost.

Stay Informed: Continuous monitoring of Express Entry draws and updates from IRCC will be crucial for strategic planning.

Prepare for Fluctuations: The CRS cutoff might fluctuate as the system adjusts to the new reality without LMIA points, making it vital for potential immigrants to be prepared for a range of scenarios.

The removal of CRS points for LMIA-backed job offers in the Express Entry system is set to significantly alter the dynamics of Canada’s immigration process in 2025.

With the current data and trends, we can cautiously predict that the CRS cutoff score will likely drop below 500 by mid to late 2025 if not sooner, depending on how quickly candidates adapt to the new rules.

This change not only aims at curbing fraud but also reshapes how candidates approach their Express Entry applications, potentially opening doors for a broader range of skilled workers to achieve their Canadian dream.